FaZe vs HEROIC - PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026

📊 Odds & Implied Probability

Average pre-match odds are typically around 1.70–1.85 for Heroic and 1.90–2.05 for FaZe.

Using the implied probability formula (1 divided by decimal odds):

• At 1.75, Heroic’s raw implied probability equals 57.1%.
• At 1.95, FaZe’s raw implied probability equals 51.3%.

Because bookmakers include margin, the true adjusted probabilities are lower once normalized. After removing overround, the market expectation is approximately:

• Heroic: 54–56%
• FaZe: 44–46%

This tells us Heroic are expected to win slightly more than half the time — but FaZe still win this matchup in roughly 4 out of 10 simulations.

📈 BO3 Mathematical Modeling

To model the series properly, we estimate per-map win probability. If Heroic are a slight favorite overall, their per-map win probability may sit around 53–55%.

Assuming 54% map win probability:

• Heroic 2–0 probability equals 0.54 × 0.54 ≈ 29%.
• Heroic 2–1 probability equals 2 × (0.54 × 0.46 × 0.54) ≈ 27%.

That gives a total Heroic series win probability near 56%, which aligns with the market.

• FaZe 2–0 probability equals 0.46 × 0.46 ≈ 21%.
• FaZe 2–1 probability equals 2 × (0.46 × 0.54 × 0.46) ≈ 23%.

Total FaZe series win probability ≈ 44%.

This distribution shows why the moneyline gap is small — most of the probability mass sits in 2–1 outcomes.

💰 Expected Value & Market Angles

At 1.75 odds, Heroic require a true probability above 57% to generate positive expected value. If your projection is closer to 54–55%, the straight moneyline has minimal or negative EV.

Because this matchup profiles as close, derivative markets may offer better value. Over 2.5 maps becomes attractive if priced above 1.85, as three-map probability sits near 50%. Heroic 2–1 also becomes interesting if odds exceed 3.40–3.50, since the modeled probability is around 27%. On the FaZe side, +1.5 maps can hold value if the implied probability drops below roughly 55%.

In tight Tier-1 matchups, spreads and totals often outperform straight favorites from an EV perspective.

⚖️ Tactical Risk Factors

Heroic typically show stronger mid-round structure and economic control. FaZe rely more heavily on individual star impact and explosive momentum rounds. If FaZe secure early economy control on map one, variance increases significantly. If Heroic dictate pace, their consistency edge becomes more visible.

Because both teams are tactically competent and veto depth is similar, a three-map series is statistically very realistic.

🔮 Final Prediction

Heroic are the slight favorite with an estimated 54–56% series probability.

• Most statistically aligned outcome: Heroic win.
• Most common exact scoreline: Heroic 2–1.