MongolZ vs Aurora Gaming - PGL Astana 2026

Aurora arrive carrying a 30% all-time head-to-head winrate against The MongolZ. That number tells the story before a single map is played. Psychological weight is real in CS2, and Aurora have consistently buckled under it against this opponent. Their recent run also raises flags: losses to MOUZ, HEROIC, and Natus Vincere in their last five outings paint a team that struggles when the level spikes.

The map pool shapes up badly for Aurora. Their Nuke winrate sits at 36% across 14 maps, making it a near-certain ban. That hands The MongolZ immediate leverage, as they boast a 64% winrate on both Nuke and Inferno over six months. Aurora's Dust2 strength is real at 64%, but The MongolZ are aware of that threat and can steer the veto accordingly. The MongolZ dictate the terms here.

Form is mixed on both sides, but The MongolZ have the stronger baseline. Their recent dip to 50% is a minor concern, though losses to Falcons and Spirit are far from embarrassing. Aurora's losses to MOUZ and HEROIC suggest they are not ready for top-tier opposition right now. The MongolZ are the better team, they have the map advantage, and history is firmly on their side.

Thunderpick odds(at time of writing):

MongolZ to win 1.78

Aurora Gaming to win 1.92