NAVI vs Astralis - PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026

📊 Odds & Implied Probability

Average pre-match moneyline odds are approximately 1.45 for NaVi and between 2.65 and 2.75 for Astralis.

To convert decimal odds into implied probability, the formula is simple: probability equals 1 divided by the decimal odds.

• At 1.45, NaVi’s raw implied probability is 1 / 1.45 = 69.0%.
• At 2.70, Astralis’ raw implied probability is 1 / 2.70 = 37.0%.

Because bookmakers build in margin (known as overround), these percentages add up to more than 100%. After adjusting for margin, the realistic market expectation is closer to 66–68% for NaVi and 32–34% for Astralis.

In practical terms, the market expects NaVi to win roughly two out of three times.

📈 BO3 Probability Modeling

To better understand likely scorelines, we can model the series mathematically. If we assume NaVi’s true per-map win probability is around 60–62%, we can estimate best-of-three outcomes.

If NaVi win each map with a 61% chance:

The probability of a 2–0 win equals 0.61 × 0.61, which is about 37%.

The probability of a 2–1 win equals 2 × (0.61 × 0.39 × 0.61), which is approximately 29%.

That gives a total NaVi series win probability of roughly 66%, which aligns closely with bookmaker expectations.

A reasonable distribution of outcomes looks like this:

• NaVi 2–0: 35–38%
• NaVi 2–1: 27–31%
• Astralis 2–1: 17–20%
• Astralis 2–0: 12–15%

This reflects a competitive matchup where Astralis still have a meaningful chance, especially if they secure early momentum.

🧠 Expected Value Perspective

At odds of 1.45, NaVi require a true win probability above 69% to generate positive expected value. If your projection is closer to 66–67%, the straight moneyline bet carries slightly negative EV.

Value may instead exist in derivative markets. For example, NaVi 2–1 becomes interesting if priced above 3.50 (implied probability below 28%). Over 2.5 maps can offer value if priced above 1.95 (implied below 51%), given the fairly balanced map strength between these teams. Astralis +1.5 maps may hold value if odds exceed 1.80, implying less than 55% probability.

Because this matchup is relatively tight at map level, a three-map series is statistically very realistic.

⚖️ Risk & Match Dynamics

NaVi generally hold an advantage in individual firepower and clutch conversion. However, Astralis are tactically disciplined and capable of exploiting slow starts or weak economies. This reduces the likelihood of a straightforward sweep and increases variance across the series.

The market is pricing NaVi as a favorite, but not as a lock.

🔮 Final Prediction

Natus Vincere are the most likely winner, with an estimated series probability of 66–68%.

The most statistically aligned outcome is NaVi to win, with 2–1 slightly more attractive from a value perspective than 2–0.