Vitality vs G2 - PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026

📊 Odds & Implied Probability

Pre-match moneyline odds typically place Vitality around 1.70–1.85 and G2 around 1.95–2.10.

Using the implied probability formula (1 divided by decimal odds), we can estimate the market expectation.

• At 1.80, Vitality’s raw implied probability equals 55.6%.
• At 2.00, G2’s raw implied probability equals 50.0%.

Because bookmakers include margin, these numbers must be normalized. After adjusting for overround, the realistic market expectation becomes approximately:

• Vitality: 53–55%
• G2: 45–47%

This indicates Vitality are expected to win slightly more often than not, but G2 remain a very live underdog with close to a coin-flip chance in competitive scenarios.

📈 BO3 Probability Modeling

To break this down mathematically, we estimate per-map win probability. If Vitality are a small favorite overall, their per-map win chance likely sits around 53–54%.

Assuming a 54% per-map win probability for Vitality:

• The probability of a 2–0 victory equals 0.54 × 0.54 ≈ 29%.
• The probability of a 2–1 victory equals 2 × (0.54 × 0.46 × 0.54) ≈ 27%.

That produces a total series win probability of roughly 56%, aligning closely with market pricing.

For G2:

• The probability of a 2–0 win equals 0.46 × 0.46 ≈ 21%.
• The probability of a 2–1 win equals 2 × (0.46 × 0.54 × 0.46) ≈ 23%.

This gives G2 around a 44% total series win probability.

Notably, the largest combined probability mass sits in 2–1 outcomes, which suggests a three-map series is statistically realistic.

💰 Expected Value Considerations

At 1.80 odds, Vitality need a true win probability above 55.6% to provide positive expected value. If your internal projection is closer to 54%, the straight moneyline becomes marginal or slightly negative EV.

Because the teams are closely matched, derivative markets may provide stronger value opportunities. Over 2.5 maps becomes interesting if priced above 1.85, since modeled three-map probability is near 50%. Vitality 2–1 carries value if priced above roughly 3.40, given its modeled probability around 27%. G2 +1.5 maps may offer value if the implied probability falls below approximately 54%.

In tight Tier-1 contests, spreads and totals often outperform simple moneyline bets from a mathematical standpoint.

⚖️ Tactical & Variance Factors

Vitality often rely on explosive individual performances and strong mid-round adjustments. When they control economy early, they can snowball maps quickly. G2 tend to thrive in slower, tactical games and can punish overly aggressive play with disciplined defaults.

Because both teams possess deep map pools and strong veto flexibility, small adjustments in early rounds or pistol outcomes can significantly influence the series trajectory. That increases variance and strengthens the case for three maps.

🔮 Final Prediction

Vitality are the slight favorite with an estimated 53–55% series win probability.

• Most statistically aligned outcome: Vitality to win.
• Most likely exact scoreline: Vitality 2–1.