14.02.2026 15:00 CET


This is a best-of-three CS2 match between Vitality and G2 at PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026. Both teams are elite European sides with strong histories, and the market treats this as a close matchup with a slight lean toward one side based on odds. This isnโt a one-sided affair โ small percentage differences matter here.
๐ Odds & Implied Probability
Pre-match moneyline odds typically place Vitality around 1.70โ1.85 and G2 around 1.95โ2.10.
Using the implied probability formula (1 divided by decimal odds), we can estimate the market expectation.
Because bookmakers include margin, these numbers must be normalized. After adjusting for overround, the realistic market expectation becomes approximately:
This indicates Vitality are expected to win slightly more often than not, but G2 remain a very live underdog with close to a coin-flip chance in competitive scenarios.
๐ BO3 Probability Modeling
To break this down mathematically, we estimate per-map win probability. If Vitality are a small favorite overall, their per-map win chance likely sits around 53โ54%.
Assuming a 54% per-map win probability for Vitality:
That produces a total series win probability of roughly 56%, aligning closely with market pricing.
For G2:
This gives G2 around a 44% total series win probability.
Notably, the largest combined probability mass sits in 2โ1 outcomes, which suggests a three-map series is statistically realistic.
๐ฐ Expected Value Considerations
At 1.80 odds, Vitality need a true win probability above 55.6% to provide positive expected value. If your internal projection is closer to 54%, the straight moneyline becomes marginal or slightly negative EV.
Because the teams are closely matched, derivative markets may provide stronger value opportunities. Over 2.5 maps becomes interesting if priced above 1.85, since modeled three-map probability is near 50%. Vitality 2โ1 carries value if priced above roughly 3.40, given its modeled probability around 27%. G2 +1.5 maps may offer value if the implied probability falls below approximately 54%.
In tight Tier-1 contests, spreads and totals often outperform simple moneyline bets from a mathematical standpoint.
โ๏ธ Tactical & Variance Factors
Vitality often rely on explosive individual performances and strong mid-round adjustments. When they control economy early, they can snowball maps quickly. G2 tend to thrive in slower, tactical games and can punish overly aggressive play with disciplined defaults.
Because both teams possess deep map pools and strong veto flexibility, small adjustments in early rounds or pistol outcomes can significantly influence the series trajectory. That increases variance and strengthens the case for three maps.
๐ฎ Final Prediction
Vitality are the slight favorite with an estimated 53โ55% series win probability.
rand1919
rand1919
Leaderboard rank: 0
Points
+26
Correct/incorrect
53/27
Pick %
66%
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