Vitality vs Natus Vincere - IEM Rio 2026

The head-to-head record tells the story before a single map is played. NaVi have won just 46% of their meetings with Vitality historically, and their most recent encounter ended in a brutal 3-0 sweep. Five straight losses to this opponent is not a slump, it is a pattern. Vitality know how to dismantle NaVi, and they have been doing it repeatedly.

The map pool dynamic further tilts things in Vitality's favor. NaVi's greatest strength is Ancient, where they carry a 73% winrate and consistently first-pick it. Vitality simply take that weapon away, banning Ancient at a 95% rate. With that comfort pick gone, NaVi are forced onto maps like Inferno and Nuke, where their winrate drops to a shaky 42%. Vitality's map control is not accidental, it is a calculated trap.

The one concern for Vitality is their recent loss to Falcons, which showed they can be vulnerable under pressure in high-stakes moments. But NaVi are not Falcons. Their form outside of this matchup has been inconsistent, including a loss to FURIA as heavy underdogs. Vitality's overall momentum, built on an 88% winrate last month, is simply too strong to fade here.

Thunderpick odds(at time of writing):

Vitality to win 1.25

Natus Vincere to win 3.50