Xaxas
13.12.2025
If your Pick'ems coin made it out of Stage 3 alive, the Budapest Major quarterfinals were where it finally met reality.
Four matches. Two massive upsets. One favorite absolutely dismantled. And by the end of Day 2, the playoff bracket looked nothing like what most fans - including us - had locked in.
Let's break down the quarterfinals with a focus on the surprises, and then review what our Pick'ems got right, what they got wrong, and what hindsight painfully clarified.
On paper, Spirit advancing over Falcons wasn't an upset. In practice, how they did it rewrote expectations.
Ivan "zweih" Gogin delivered a breakout Major playoff performance, anchoring Nuke with authority and helping Spirit claw back from a 5-11 deficit on Dust2 to win in overtime. Alongside him, donk finally exorcised his NiKo-and-m0NESY demons, breaking a nine-series losing streak against that duo.
Falcons' stars simply didn't show up. NiKo flashed early. m0NESY faded - again - on the biggest stage. Spirit didn't just win; they looked ready to win the Major.
Hindsight takeaway: Our pick was right, but we underestimated Spirit's depth. This wasn't a donk carry - it was a complete team arriving early.
If anyone was expecting another miracle run from The MongolZ, Vitality shut that door immediately.
Mathieu "ZywOo" Herbaut put on one of the most dominant Major quarterfinal performances in recent memory, finishing the series with a 2.18 rating and a Mirage T side that bordered on unfair. The MongolZ never found their footing, and their Stage 3 momentum evaporated under disciplined pressure.
No upset. No scare. Just championship-level Counter-Strike.
Hindsight takeaway: We correctly trusted experience, structure, and a superstar who refuses to lose quarterfinals.
This is where the Pick'ems started bleeding.
We backed MOUZ: home crowd, cleaner structure, better consistency. What we didn't fully account for was FaZe's refusal to die.
After being milliseconds from elimination in Stage 1, FaZe now look reborn. broky, heavily criticized all year, exploded against MOUZ with a 1.62 rating and vintage AWP impact. Nuke slipped away late. Inferno wasn't competitive.
The crowd couldn't save MOUZ. FaZe's pedigree did.
Hindsight takeaway: Never bet against FaZe once they survive the early stages of a Major. Momentum plus experience beats comfort every time.
This was the gut punch.
World #1 FURIA. FalleN chasing history. Our predicted champion - out in the quarterfinals.
NAVI delivered one of the most impressive tactical upsets of the year. Even after blowing a 10-3 lead on Inferno and eating a brutal FalleN 1v3 clutch, Aleksib's squad reset mentally and obliterated FURIA 13-3 on Train.
w0nderful played like a superstar. makazze announced himself on the biggest stage. And FURIA's rookie sniper molodoy cracked under pressure, posting a 0.81 rating in the series.
This wasn't a fluke - it was preparation meeting vulnerability.
Hindsight takeaway: We overvalued FURIA's season-long stability and undervalued NAVI's ceiling in a single-elimination Major playoff.
Spirit over Falcons
Vitality over The MongolZ
MOUZ over FaZe → Experience gap punished
FURIA over NAVI → Tactical masterclass dismantled the favorites
Champion Pick: FURIA
Eliminated in quarters, sending the entire Pick'ems path into the abyss.
The Budapest Major quarterfinals reminded us why Pick'ems are cruel:
Form beats ranking
Momentum beats comfort
Preparation beats pressure
And Majors do not care about narratives
Two upsets were enough to blow the bracket wide open. FaZe and NAVI - both written off earlier in the tournament - now stand two wins away from a Major final.
If Stage 3 was chaos, the quarterfinals were clarity: only teams that adapt under pressure survive.
And if your coin turned grey here?
You weren't alone.
Xaxas
13.12.2025
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