"You sure you chose right?" - Updated for the final Swiss
The final Swiss stage of the Budapest Major is here, and this one is the real coin-killer.
Stage 3 is where the VRS-seeded elite enter the building, but this time they're not alone, they're joined by one of the strangest, most chaotic sets of Stage 2 survivors we've seen in years. Some unexpected arrivals (PARIVISION, Passion UA, 3DMAX) and a few near-disasters from big names (Liquid, FaZe) have made this a much more volatile pool than fans expected.
Image source
Before you lock anything in, let's break down what the new qualifiers bring and whether they're strong enough to cause real Pick'ems damage.
Speaking of Pick'ems, we have our own right here on the site!
CS2 Tournaments Budapest Stage 3: Power Picks, Not Prayers
This stage is normally the most predictable part of the Major.
Not this time.
New Stage 2 survivors like PARIVISION, Passion UA, 3DMAX, and Imperial force you to rethink what "safe" even means.
Still, the top seeds remain the backbone of your Pick'ems.
Let's go category by category.
Virtually Guaranteed to Advance
(The safest 3-0 / 3-1 options)
These teams are still your rock-solid picks, nothing about the Stage 2 chaos changes that:
Vitality
- Even when shaky, they always survive Swiss
- Face FaZe first, but BO1s rarely eliminate superteams
- Still the most stable system in the field
FURIA
- Arrive as the best team in the world
- First match vs NAVI is a heavyweight brawl, but BO3s will guarantee them enough wins later
- One of the only true 3-0 contenders
Falcons
- Europe's most consistent playoff team of 2025
- Open vs B8, which is an ideal start
- Systematic, low-variance, trustworthy
Spirit
- Liquid in the opener is tough, but donk is still donk
- As long as they avoid double upset losses, they're nearly bulletproof
Pick at least 2-3 of these as your bedrock.
Safe to Advance (But Not Untouchable)
These teams are strong, but risky enough that you shouldn't put all your eggs here.
FaZe
- jcobbb instead of rain adds variance
- Close to elimination in earlier stages
- Vitality in the opener doesn't help
- Still expected to go 3-2 or 3-1, but don't use them as your main safe pick
MOUZ
- Always good for a 2-1 start
- Always capable of throwing map 4 or 5
- Opening vs PARIVISION is actually dangerous, PARIVISION are specialists at dragging favorites into late rounds
Natus Vincere
- w0nderful is in superstar form entering Stage 3
- But their opener is vs FURIA, the worst draw possible
- Still a high-likelihood qualifier once BO3s begin
The Big Question: Do the NEW Stage 2 qualifiers shake things up?
Absolutely, and the danger varies wildly by team.
Let's break down the fresh arrivals.
New Arrivals Tier List
Real Threats to Your Pick'ems (Upset Specialists)
3DMAX
- Just bodied NIP 13-3 and 2-0 to qualify
- Graviti is in peak form
- They face paiN first, winnable
- Best Stage 2 team by eye test
If you're looking for one dark horse with genuine 3-2 upside, 3DMAX is the pick.
PARIVISION
- Four rookies
- Jame
- Ice-cold late round calls
- NIP and Aurora both fell to them in OT
- Opening vs MOUZ is brutal, but after that, they become a landmine for any team in the 1-1 or 1-2 pools
PARIVISION is the most likely team to ruin a favorite's Pick'em somewhere mid-stage.
Dangerous But Unstable
Passion UA
- Elite Train specialists
- JT just played the best map of his career
- But their opener is vs G2. A terrible matchup
- Good upset potential later, not playoff material
Imperial
- Brazil magic is real
- Beat M80 despite losing all six pistol rounds
- The MongolZ first, a 50/50 series
- Hard to trust long-term, but can take a map off anyone
Competent, But Unlikely to Go Deep
paiN
- Good in long BO3s, mediocre in BO1s
- 3DMAX is a tough opening draw
- A classic 1-3/2-3 danger team
B8
- Strong early-stage performances every Major
- Falcons in the opener is brutal
- Not enough firepower to survive this pool
Likely Non-Factors (But Respectable)
Liquid
- Survived Stage 2 by the skin of their teeth
- Ultimate had a miracle Nuke
- Spirit in the opener is too much
- 3-2 is possible, but they'll need multiple comebacks
The MongolZ
- Great mechanics, great structure
- Imperial first is winnable
- But the depth of Stage 3 punishes every mistake
Updated Stage 3 Pick'ems: Recommended Setup
3-0 Pick (High Upside, Low Risk)
You still want your 3-0 pick to be a heavy favorite who won't get dragged into chaos.
Two options stand above the pack:
Recommended:
Avoid:
- NAVI (FURIA opener)
- FaZe (Vitality opener)
- MOUZ (upset-prone PARIVISION opener)
- Falcons (but still very safe overall)
7 Teams to Advance (Safe Picks)
The most stable:
- Vitality
- FURIA
- Falcons
- Spirit
- NAVI
- FaZe
- MOUZ
If you want to be slightly spicy:
Swap MOUZ or FaZe for 3DMAX, who are surging at the perfect time.
Dark Horse Picks (Use Sparingly)
Only choose ONE of these, maximum:
- 3DMAX (actual upset potential)
- PARIVISION (Jame time is eternal)
- Imperial (Brazilian magic tax)
- Passion UA (map specialists)
Do not pick:
- paiN
- B8
- The MongolZ
- Liquid
Unless you're doing a chaos Pick'em for fun.
Final Pick'ems Summary - Stage 3
3-0 Pick:
Safe Qualifiers:
- Vitality
- Falcons
- NAVI
- FaZe
- MOUZ
- Spirit/FURIA (whichever you didn't use for 3-0)
1 Dark Horse You May Include:
Avoid for Your Coin:
- B8
- paiN
- Passion UA
- Liquid
- MongolZ
Good luck and may your picks earn your way to glory!
TL;DR
- Stage 2 survivors include surprise qualifiers PARIVISION, Passion UA, 3DMAX, and Imperial
- Budapest Major Stage 3 features VRS-seeded favorites against unpredictable new arrivals
- Traditional safe picks like Vitality, FURIA, Falcons, and Spirit remain strongest options 3DMAX and PARIVISION pose genuine upset threats to established favorites
- Recommended 3-0 picks: FURIA or Spirit for maximum safety and upside
Cover image source
