Gocore IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Pick'ems Guide: How Our Predictions Held Up

The Swiss stage is over.

Eight teams remain.

And after one of the wildest Stage 3 runs we've seen at a Major, it's time to see how our original Pick'ems guide performed before looking ahead to the LANXESS Arena playoffs.

Looking Back at Stage 3

In our Stage 3 Pick'ems guide, we identified Spirit and Vitality as the strongest 3-0 candidates.

We got one exactly right.

Spirit delivered a flawless Stage 3 run, defeating NAVI, Aurora and 9z to qualify 3-0 while extending their overall Cologne record to an incredible 6-0. Even when 9z pushed them to the brink, donk and sh1ro found a way to complete the comeback and secure the playoff spot.

Vitality, meanwhile, proved why Swiss stages are so dangerous. The eventual playoff team dropped an early series to 9z before fighting back through the 3-1 pool. The prediction wasn't completely wrong, they still reached the LANXESS Arena, but the road was much harder than expected.

Several of our projected playoff teams made it through. Falcons survived a brutal path that included NAVI, FURIA justified their status as one of the tournament's strongest teams with a perfect 3-0 record, and G2 clawed their way through the final qualification match thanks to HeavyGod's heroics.

The biggest surprise was 9z.

Originally placed among the eliminated teams, the South American squad exceeded expectations throughout the event. After upsetting Vitality and pushing Spirit to overtime on multiple maps, they completed their Cinderella run by defeating The MongolZ to secure a playoff berth.

BetBoom also continued their miracle run. A roster featuring stand-ins and virtually no expectations before the Major has somehow battled through three Swiss stages and earned a place in the LANXESS Arena.

Now the Major enters an entirely different phase.

Swiss survival no longer matters.

Every match is win or go home.

Quarterfinal 1: Aurora vs BetBoom

Aurora arrive as one of the hottest teams in the tournament.

Their 13-1 demolition of 9z on Nuke was arguably the most dominant map played during Stage 3, while woxic's unforgettable 1v4 on Dust2 instantly became one of the highlights of the Major.

The Turkish side possesses significantly more firepower across the board. XANTARES continues to be one of the most explosive riflers in Counter-Strike, woxic is playing his best event in years, and Major rookie soulfly has emerged as one of the breakout stars of Cologne.

BetBoom deserve enormous credit for reaching playoffs, but their losses against both FURIA and Vitality exposed limitations against elite opposition.

Image source

Prediction: Aurora 2-0

Confidence: 8/10

Quarterfinal 2: 9z vs FURIA

This matchup guarantees South American representation in the semifinals.

9z have been the feel-good story of the tournament. They beat Vitality, pushed Spirit to the limit, and completed a remarkable run from Stage 2 all the way to the playoffs.

Unfortunately for them, FURIA might be the worst possible opponent.

The Brazilians cruised through Stage 3 with a 3-0 record and dropped only one map along the way. YEKINDAR has transformed the team's ceiling since joining, while KSCERATO continues to perform like one of the world's elite riflers.

Then there's FalleN.

No player in the bracket has more history inside the LANXESS Arena. The Brazilian legend is chasing a third Cologne title almost a decade after lifting the trophy for the first time.

9z have already exceeded expectations. FURIA look capable of going even further.

Image source

Prediction: FURIA 2-1

Confidence: 7.5/10

Quarterfinal 3: G2 vs Spirit

This is arguably the hardest matchup in the entire bracket for anyone not named Vitality.

G2 deserve praise for surviving Stage 3 and defeating NAVI in a dramatic qualification series. HeavyGod has been exceptional and carried much of the team's offensive output during the final rounds of Swiss.

The problem is the opponent.

Spirit have beaten G2 every time they've met this year.

They completed Stage 3 undefeated.

They own arguably the deepest map pool remaining in the event.

And they still have donk.

While Spirit looked vulnerable against 9z, championship teams often need those close calls before playoff runs. The comeback victories against the South Americans may end up strengthening their confidence rather than exposing weakness.

Unless G2 find another level entirely, Spirit remain clear favorites.

Image source

Prediction: Spirit 2-0

Confidence: 9/10

Quarterfinal 4: Falcons vs Vitality

This feels like a semifinal disguised as a quarterfinal.

The winner immediately becomes one of the favorites to reach the Grand Final.

Vitality have looked strangely vulnerable throughout Cologne. They lost to 9z, needed three maps against FUT and MOUZ, and even against BetBoom looked far from dominant at times.

Yet they keep winning.

That's what championship teams do.

Falcons arrive with serious momentum after surviving a double-overtime thriller against NAVI. m0NESY, NiKo and TeSeS have all delivered huge moments during the Swiss stage, and karrigan's playoff experience can never be ignored.

Still, when matches get tight, having ZywOo on your side remains the ultimate advantage.

If Vitality clean up the individual mistakes that plagued them during Stage 3, they should edge out one of the best series of the tournament.

Image source

Prediction: Vitality 2-1

Confidence: 6.5/10

Semifinal Predictions

Aurora vs FURIA

Aurora have been excellent, but FURIA look like the most balanced team on the lower side of the bracket. YEKINDAR has added explosive entry power while KSCERATO continues to deliver superstar numbers. Most importantly, FURIA have looked composed in every pressure situation so far.

Aurora's aggressive style can overwhelm opponents, but FURIA possess more playoff experience and a stronger supporting cast.

Image source

Prediction:

FURIA 2-1 Aurora

Spirit vs Vitality

This feels like the match many expected to be the Grand Final.

Spirit have looked sharper throughout the tournament, entering the LANXESS Arena undefeated. Donk is currently the strongest MVP candidate, and Spirit's ability to recover from losing positions against 9z showed championship-level resilience.

Vitality absolutely have the talent to win the event, especially if ZywOo reaches his peak level, but they have looked vulnerable throughout Stage 3 while Spirit have consistently found solutions.

Image source

Prediction:

Spirit 2-1 Vitality

Predicted Grand Final

Spirit vs FURIA

The two teams that qualified 3-0 have looked like the strongest and most complete rosters throughout Cologne.

FURIA possess experience, momentum and one of the tournament's best stories through FalleN's pursuit of a third Cologne title.

Spirit possess something even more valuable.

The best player in the world right now.

Image source

Prediction:

Spirit 2-1

Playoff CS2 Scores Summary

Quarterfinal Winners:

• Aurora
• FURIA
• Spirit
• Vitality

Semifinal Winners:

• FURIA
• Spirit

Champion:

🏆 Spirit

Final MVP:

🏆 donk

Dark Horse:

⭐ Aurora

Best Tournament Story:

⭐ 9z Safest Playoff Pick:

✅ Spirit over G2 Most Competitive Quarterfinal:

🔥 Falcons vs Vitality

Most Likely Upset:

⚠️ BetBoom over Aurora

TL;DR

• Stage 3 Swiss concluded with eight teams advancing to the LANXESS Arena playoffs
• Spirit (3-0) and FURIA (3-0) emerge as the strongest playoff contenders
• 9z and BetBoom delivered the biggest surprises of the Swiss stage
• Full quarterfinal, semifinal and Grand Final predictions with confidence ratings