The IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 is underway, and the 16-team Swiss system has already delivered its first wave of chaos. Rounds 1 through 3 of the June 6th to 9th event have been played, and the bracket looks nothing like most analysts expected heading in. Here is a full breakdown of what happened, and how our predictions measured up.

The Format: How Stage 2 Works

Stage 2 runs a 16-team Swiss system across rounds played between June 6th and 9th, 2026. Rounds 2 through 5 are seeded using the Buchholz system combined with teams' initial seeds. Elimination and advancement matches are played as best-of-three series, while all other matches are best-of-one. The top 8 teams at the end of the stage advance to Stage 3, and the bottom 8 are eliminated.

That Bo1 format for non-decisive matches is worth keeping in mind when reviewing the results below. Single maps leave very little margin for error, and upsets are considerably more likely than in a best-of-three setting.

Round 1: Where Things Went Sideways

Round 1 set the tone immediately. We correctly predicted three of the eight matches, but the five upsets that fell the other way had cascading consequences for every round that followed.

Our correct calls were Team Spirit defeating BetBoom Team, G2 defeating M80, and 9z defeating FlyQuest. All three went as expected with no major drama.

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The upsets were significant. FUT came out ahead of B8, reversing our prediction. Astralis defeated GamerLegion in what was one of the more notable reversals of the round, given how confident many were in GamerLegion heading in. TYLOO overcame pAIN, mibr sent Legacy home from their match, and Monte knocked out BIG.

Round 2: Cascade Effects Take Hold

Because the Swiss system reseeds based on Buchholz after Round 1, the five upsets from the opening round completely restructured Round 2 matchups. The bracket we predicted against no longer existed, which makes direct comparisons for most Round 2 matches impractical. Teams we expected to be 1-0 were 0-1, and vice versa.

With that context noted, here is what happened in Round 2.

FUT continued their strong run by beating TYLOO. 9z defeated Astralis in a result that extended their unbeaten start. G2 beat Monte to move to 2-0. Team Spirit handled mibr to stay perfect. BIG recovered by beating pAIN. Legacy found their footing against FlyQuest. BetBoom Team eliminated GamerLegion from the 1-0 pool. M80 defeated B8.

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Of the Round 2 predictions that can be meaningfully evaluated, 9z winning their match, FUT winning their match, and BetBoom Team winning their match all aligned with the general direction of our calls, even if the opponents differed. The Astralis result stands out again, with TYLOO having beaten them in Round 1 and the Scandinavian squad still unable to find their footing.

Round 3: The Bracket Reshapes Again

Round 3 continued to diverge from our original predictions, which were built on a bracket that no longer reflected reality after the Round 1 upsets. Direct round-by-round comparisons for most matches remain impractical given how significantly the seeding shifted.

The headline result was Team Spirit defeating 9z. We had called this one in the opposite direction, predicting 9z to take down Spirit. Spirit's continued strong play across all three rounds marks them as the standout team of Stage 2 so far.

Other Round 3 results: Monte beat Legacy, TYLOO beat Astralis in another result that underlines Astralis's difficult run through Stage 2, BIG beat mibr, BetBoom Team beat M80, pAIN beat FlyQuest, B8 beat GamerLegion, and FUT beat G2.

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Of the Round 3 predictions we made, BetBoom Team winning their match aligned with our call directionally, even with the opponent differing. The Spirit versus 9z result was the most direct prediction we made for this round, and it went the wrong way.

Prediction Accuracy Summary

Round 1 was the only round where direct comparisons across all eight matches were possible, given that the pairings matched our preview. We went 3 from 8, with the five upsets in that opening round the primary driver of the divergence between our predictions and the final picture.

For Rounds 2 and 3, the Swiss system's Buchholz reseeding meant the matchups shifted substantially from what we had projected, and while our initial predictions didn’t survive the matches, we were keeping a keen eye on day-to-day events with daily tips for at least one high profile head-to-head. Direct prediction comparisons for those rounds are limited, though the general direction of our calls for 9z, FUT, BetBoom Team, and Team Spirit tracked reasonably well across the three days, even when the specific opponents changed.

The teams that surprised most consistently were FUT, who outperformed expectations, TYLOO, who beat pAIN and Astralis across successive rounds, and Monte, whose win over BIG in Round 1 had ripple effects throughout the bracket.

TL;DR

• Stage 2 runs a 16-team Swiss system with Bo1 matches until elimination and advancement rounds
• Round 1 produced five upsets, going 3 from 8 against our predictions and restructuring the rest of the bracket
• Team Spirit are the standout so far, going 3-0 across all three rounds
• FUT and TYLOO have both significantly outperformed expectations
• Round 2 and Round 3 matchup comparisons are limited due to Buchholz reseeding following the Round 1 upsets