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Xaxas
12.05.2026
PGL Astana 2026 opened without one thing Counter-Strike fans have grown used to over the past year: Vitality dominance.
Without ZywOo and the world's current best team in attendance, Astana immediately became the most unpredictable S-tier event of 2026 so far. Falcons debuted the karrigan era, MOUZ arrived with a rebuilt roster, Spirit hunted redemption after Rio, and several dangerous underdogs entered with genuine upset potential.
That chaos showed up instantly in the Gocore Pick'ems.
Some "safe picks" delivered exactly as expected. Others exploded immediately. And one risk pick completely flipped the tournament upside down.
Going into Round 1, the safest GoCore selections looked straightforward: Falcons, Spirit, G2, MongolZ, and FURIA all entered with major advantages in firepower, structure, or experience.
Most of them delivered.
Spirit comfortably handled The Huns behind another strong showing from donk, while G2 rolled past Fisher College without major issues. MongolZ also avoided disaster against magic, relying on their relentless aggressive style to overwhelm less experienced opposition.
Falcons survived karrigan's debut series against K27, but the match exposed some early warning signs. While m0NESY and NiKo carried heavily, Falcons still looked shaky in mid-round structure and nearly allowed K27 back into Ancient after throwing away momentum multiple times.
Still, the real story of Round 1 came from the exact matches GoCore identified as "leaderboard separation" opportunities.
One of the biggest Round 1 risk picks immediately paid off.
Aurora entered the event as favorites against HEROIC, but the tactical discipline GoCore highlighted before the event became the deciding factor. HEROIC slowed the pace, controlled the economy, and repeatedly punished Aurora's over-aggression.
nilo completely dominated Dust2 with clutches, multi-kills, and an ace, while xfl0ud delivered one of the best revenge performances of the opening day against his former organization.
For Pick'ems players who trusted the HEROIC upset angle, this was an enormous early swing.
The second major "risk pick" became even bigger.
Gocore warned that 9z's momentum and chaotic style could threaten PARIVISION despite the CIS squad entering as favorites. Instead of merely stealing a map, 9z completely dismantled them.
luchov delivered one of the individual performances of the tournament so far with two aces on Inferno, while dgt obliterated Ancient with 29 kills and 134 ADR.
By the end of Round 1, the "safe" Pick'Ems foundation already looked unstable.
Round 2 transformed 9z from upset team into legitimate playoff contenders.
After shocking PARIVISION, the South Americans followed it up by humiliating Falcons in one of the most unexpected results of the tournament. While Mirage stayed competitive, Dust2 became a complete collapse from karrigan's new roster as Falcons were crushed 13-1.
Suddenly, one of the safest Round 1 GoCore picks had become one of the most questioned teams in the event.
The concerns mentioned before Astana, emotional composure, T-side structure, and momentum control, immediately resurfaced under pressure. NiKo and m0NESY still looked elite individually, but the team around them lacked coordination once rounds became chaotic.
Meanwhile, MOUZ quietly became one of the strongest-performing teams in the Swiss stage.
One of the biggest pre-event questions surrounded MOUZ's rebuild. jL and xelex both entered the roster with chemistry concerns, while xertioN took over in-game leadership responsibilities.
Through two rounds, the gamble looked surprisingly successful.
MOUZ defeated G2 in a tense three-map series thanks to another superstar performance from xertioN, who somehow continued fragging at an elite level while leading the team. torzsi remained consistent throughout the series, while xelex started showing flashes of why MOUZ trusted him despite his inexperience.
At the same time, Spirit continued to stabilize after their Rio collapse.
donk looked increasingly dominant with every map, while sh1ro quietly delivered the kind of stable AWPing Spirit needed after their emotional loss to Vitality weeks earlier.
By Round 3, the Swiss stage became brutal.
Every match suddenly carried playoff or elimination implications, and several preseason favorites found themselves in danger.
No team gained more respect in Astana than 9z.
After defeating PARIVISION and Falcons, they secured a flawless 3-0 Swiss run by beating MOUZ in another dramatic three-map series. While MOUZ dominated Inferno, 9z once again looked fearless in chaotic late-round situations.
luchov continued his superstar breakout event, while max became one of the tournament's most important clutch players.
What began as a "risk pick" had now become one of the best Pick'Ems calls of the tournament.
Spirit also locked playoffs after defeating FURIA in a high-level three-map series.
The matchup showcased exactly why Spirit remain one of the tournament favorites despite Rio disappointment. Whenever the game became unstable, donk simply took over. Mirage became another donk masterpiece as he posted 23 kills and over 100 ADR to close the series.
Spirit now look like the most complete team in Astana.
After their shocking loss to HEROIC, Aurora finally stabilized against PARIVISION.
XANTARES, soulfly, and Wicadia completely outclassed the CIS side mechanically, while Wicadia's ridiculous 1v4 on Anubis instantly became one of the tournament's best clips.
The win pushed Aurora back into playoff contention while sending PARIVISION dangerously close to elimination.
Falcons bounced back against Monte, but the problems still feel visible.
NiKo and m0NESY continue carrying massive amounts of fragging responsibility, while karrigan is clearly still trying to stabilize the system. Their ceiling remains championship level, but they currently look far less polished than Spirit or even 9z.
Gocore identified 9z as one of the most dangerous upset teams before the event began.
Three rounds later, they are undefeated and already locked into playoffs.
The tactical mismatch mattered far more than expected, especially with nilo and xfl0ud massively overperforming.
Spirit have looked increasingly dominant every round, with donk once again proving he may still be the best player in Counter-Strike.
The firepower remains elite, but the structure still looks unfinished under karrigan.
Prediction: MOUZ 2-1
Probably the closest series of the round. Aurora's firepower can absolutely overwhelm weaker CT setups, but MOUZ currently look more adaptable across long series.
Prediction: Falcons 2-1
Dangerous matchup for Falcons stylistically. MongolZ thrive in aggressive, chaotic games — exactly where Falcons have struggled. Still, the individual quality of NiKo and m0NESY should barely push them through.
Prediction: FURIA 2-0
FURIA's experience advantage should show here. KSCERATO and molodoy have both looked reliable throughout the Swiss stage.
Prediction: HEROIC 2-1
magic are riding momentum after tenzy's monster elimination series, but HEROIC's tactical discipline should hold up better under pressure.
Prediction: Monte 2-0
Monte have not looked convincing, but they remain significantly more structured than The Huns.
Prediction: G2 2-1
A disaster matchup for both organizations. G2 still have enough firepower to survive, but confidence on both sides looks fragile entering elimination day.
If expected results hold:
Right now, however, the tournament belongs to two teams:
Spirit, the most complete roster in Astana.
9z, the team nobody can predict anymore.
Xaxas
12.05.2026
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