PGL Astana 2026 CS2 Predictions: Gocore Round 1 Pick'ems Guide

PGL Astana 2026 arrives with one major difference from recent S-tier CS2 tournaments. Vitality are not here.

That changes everything.

For the first time in months, the tournament does not have a clear favorite built around ZywOo dominance and elite late-round structure. Instead, the field feels wide open. Falcons begin a new era with karrigan. Spirit want redemption after collapsing in the IEM Rio final. FURIA are trying to carry momentum forward. MOUZ debut a rebuilt roster. G2 are still searching for consistency.

For Pick'ems players, this creates opportunity.

Round 1 of the Swiss stage is where safe points matter most. You are not trying to win the leaderboard immediately. You are trying to avoid early mistakes while identifying one or two risky calls that can separate you from the pack later in the event.

With +1 for correct picks and -1 for wrong ones, discipline matters more than hype.

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Falcons vs K27

This is the headline match of Round 1 because it marks karrigan's debut with Falcons.

The timing could not be better for the Danish veteran. Falcons looked dangerous at IEM Rio before collapsing against Spirit in the semi-finals. Their firepower remains elite with m0NESY and NiKo capable of taking over entire maps. The issue at Rio was composure under pressure and inconsistent T-side structure once momentum slipped away.

That is exactly why karrigan was brought in.

K27 are stronger than casual viewers may expect. The addition of fame gives them more firepower and they narrowly missed Major qualification. Their aggressive style can punish sloppy anti-ecos and weak map control.

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Still, over a Bo3, Falcons should simply have too much depth.

Safe Pick: Falcons

If Falcons lose this, it immediately becomes the biggest upset of Round 1.

Spirit vs The Huns

Spirit enter Astana with something to prove after being dismantled by Vitality in the IEM Rio grand final. donk never fully found his peak level in that series, and Spirit's structure completely collapsed once Mirage slipped away in overtime.

The good news for Spirit is that this matchup is far less demanding.

The Huns remain dangerous in chaotic rounds and have upset potential in aggressive openings, but Spirit's map pool and individual level should comfortably carry them through.

Watch for tN1R here. His improvement at Rio was one of the biggest positive signs for Spirit heading into Astana.

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Safe Pick: Spirit

This is another matchup where overthinking creates unnecessary risk.

FURIA vs Monte

FURIA are one of the most difficult teams to evaluate entering this event.

At Rio they looked emotionally charged, dangerous in clutch situations, and heavily boosted by crowd momentum. None of those advantages exist in Astana. Now the question becomes whether their tactical structure alone is enough to consistently beat solid tier-two opposition.

Monte are disciplined and capable of punishing loose CT rotations. If FURIA start slowly, this could become uncomfortable quickly.

Still, KSCERATO remains one of the most reliable riflers in CS2, and FalleN's calling should be enough to control the pace in a Bo3 opener.

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Safe Pick: FURIA Risk Pick: Monte

If you need an early upset angle to separate from the pack, this is one of the few realistic options.

MOUZ vs Gentle Mates

This is one of the harder matches to read because MOUZ arrive with roster changes.

jL and xelex both debut in this lineup, meaning chemistry questions immediately become relevant. MOUZ traditionally rely on structure, coordinated CT setups, and disciplined mid-round calls. New rosters often struggle with exactly those areas in their first event.

Gentle Mates are less individually skilled, but early-tournament volatility creates danger.

The difference should still come down to map pool quality and experience.

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Safe Pick: MOUZ

This feels close early before MOUZ stabilize across the series.

G2 vs Fisher College

Fisher College already made history by becoming the first collegiate team to qualify for a tier-one event. Their reverse sweep qualification run showed resilience and strong mental recovery.

But this is still a brutal opening draw.

G2 remain inconsistent, especially in late-round situations, but their firepower advantage here is enormous. HeavyGod and huNter- should dominate opening duels, while Fisher will likely struggle against elite CT-side pressure.

neaLaN standing in adds experience, especially in Kazakhstan, but asking this roster to beat G2 in a Bo3 is too much.

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Safe Pick: G2

This is a points-building matchup. Do not gamble unnecessarily.

Aurora vs HEROIC

This is one of the best matches for Pick'ems value.

Aurora's style relies heavily on individual impact and momentum. HEROIC are more system-oriented and capable of slowing games down through tactical setups and disciplined economy management.

The xfl0ud storyline against his former organization adds extra pressure to the server.

This series likely comes down to map vetoes. If HEROIC steer the series toward slower tactical maps, they gain a real edge. If Aurora force aggressive pacing, the matchup becomes much harder to control.

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Safe Pick: Aurora Risk Pick: HEROIC

One of the best "separate from the pack" opportunities in Round 1.

MongolZ vs magic

The MongolZ remain one of the most dangerous fast-paced teams outside the elite tier. Their aggressive T sides and confidence in aim duels overwhelm weaker teams quickly.

magic have shown flashes online but still lack proven LAN consistency against elite opposition.

This should heavily favor MongolZ unless anti-eco mistakes allow unnecessary momentum swings.

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Safe Pick: MongolZ

PARIVISION vs 9z

This matchup feels closer than most Pick'ems players will expect.

9z dominated the South American qualifier and arrive with momentum. PARIVISION, however, remain the more complete tactical team with stronger map depth and more reliable CT-side structure.

9z can absolutely steal a map if the game becomes chaotic, especially on comfort picks.

Still, over a full Bo3, PARIVISION should control the series.

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Safe Pick: PARIVISION Risk Pick: 9z

CS2 Tournaments Round 1: Final GoCore Pick'ems Strategy

Round 1 is about discipline.

The safest foundation picks are Falcons, Spirit, G2, MongolZ, and FURIA. These teams have clear advantages in firepower, map pool depth, or tactical structure.

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The key decision points are Aurora vs HEROIC and PARIVISION vs 9z. Those are the matches where leaderboard separation begins.

If you want consistency, stay safe early and build stable points.

If you want to climb aggressively, identify one upset and commit to it confidently.

Because in Swiss formats, one bad Round 1 can force you to chase the leaderboard for the rest of the tournament.

##TL;DR

• Vitality are absent, making PGL Astana far more open than recent CS2 events
• Falcons begin the karrigan era against K27
• Spirit look to recover after their IEM Rio grand final loss
• Safe picks: Falcons, Spirit, G2, MongolZ, FURIA
• Risk picks: HEROIC over Aurora, Monte over FURIA, 9z over PARIVISION
• Round 1 is about building consistency before taking bigger risks later