Stage 1 at IEM Kraków runs from January 28 to 30 and features a 16 team double elimination bracket. All matches are BO3. Eight teams advance, eight go home. On paper, that sounds generous. In Pick'ems terms, it changes everything.

With half the field progressing, the edge does not come from simply picking the strongest names. Padding points are limited to one round, meaning teams that go 2-1 or 2-2 can be just as valuable as clean 2-0 runs if they play more maps. Volume matters. Stability matters more.

This is the first fantasy game of three for Kraków. Stage 2 and Playoffs will follow immediately. That means consistency now builds your monthly ranking base. Choose battles wisely.

CS2 Tournaments: Stage 1 Teams Most Likely to Advance

Aurora, PARIVISION, G2, and Liquid stand out as the most reliable advancement picks based on seeding, recent form, and matchup structure.

Aurora enter Stage 1 as the highest seed and draw GamerLegion in the opener. Their CT sides have been among the most efficient in the tier one and tier one-and-a-half circuit, and their map pool avoids hard liabilities. Even if they drop into the lower bracket, they are favored in most elimination scenarios. Aurora are a safe Pick'ems anchor.

PARIVISION are the most important team to understand in this stage. Fresh off a BLAST Bounty title, their prices were locked before that run, creating immediate value. Their opening match against HEROIC is not free, but PARIVISION's structure, especially on T sides, gives them a higher floor than most teams in this bracket. They are no longer an upset pick. They are a consistency play.

G2 face Passion UA in the opener. This is one of the cleanest first-round matchups on the board. G2's individual firepower and map veto control should translate into a straightforward series. Even if G2 stumble later, they are heavily favored to recover through the lower bracket.

Liquid versus Ninjas in Pyjamas is the most competitive opening match, but Liquid's recent head-to-head edge and stronger late-round decision-making give them the advantage. Liquid are not invincible, but they are structurally sound enough to trust for advancement.

If you want to separate from the pack, Astralis and B8 are your risk-adjusted alternatives. Astralis have shown volatility, but their matchup against paiN is winnable, and B8's uncertainty around headtr1ck clouds perception enough to lower ownership.

Opening matchups that define Pick'ems strategy

Some series matter more than others because they shape the entire bracket.

Legacy versus BC.Game is the headline. This is BC.Game's LAN debut with s1mple leading a former SAW core. On paper, Legacy are favored. In Pick'ems reality, this series is about player value rather than team outcome. Even in losses, BC.Game are likely to play long maps with high individual output.

Liquid versus Ninjas in Pyjamas will decide which team avoids an early lower bracket grind. Expect close maps, overtimes, and fantasy-friendly stat lines.

HEROIC versus PARIVISION is the danger zone for conservative Pick'ems players. HEROIC still carry name value, but current form favors PARIVISION. This is where trusting recent structure over legacy branding can gain ground.

Best CS2 Players for Stage 1 Fantasy Picks

Oleksandr s1mple Kostyliev at $195k is the most obvious value play in the pool. His team is a clear underdog, which suppresses ownership, but s1mple's role guarantees high usage, high ADR, and strong clutch opportunities. In a format where losing teams can still farm points, s1mple is a strategic decision, not a gamble.

Jame at $197k is the safest high-floor pick in the entire stage. PARIVISION's style maximizes his impact while minimizing variance. His survival rate, AWP economy control, and late-round calling translate directly into fantasy consistency. Doubling up on PARIVISION players is viable.

Ivan zweih Gogin is the ceiling play. His aggressive T-side impact was the difference maker at BLAST Bounty. If PARIVISION go deep, zweih can outperform his price and create separation in daily contests.

From G2, their star rifler remains a solid inclusion due to opening matchup strength and expected map count. Liquid's core riflers also benefit from likely long series against NiP.

Avoid stacking too many favorites from teams expected to sweep 2-0. Short series cap upside.

Safe core versus differentiation picks

Safe core picks are Aurora players, Jame, and one G2 or Liquid rifler. These choices protect your baseline and keep you competitive.

Differentiation comes from s1mple, zweih, and selective Astralis players. This is how you separate from the pack without overexposing yourself to early elimination risk.

If you are playing daily contests, this is not the stage to chase perfection. Build for volume, trust systems over names, and remember that one correct risky call can swing the leaderboard.

How to approach team Pick'ems scoring

With +1 for correct and -1 for incorrect, the goal is minimizing unnecessary losses. Lock in teams with multiple paths to qualification. Avoid coin-flip series unless you are intentionally chasing upside.

Aurora, PARIVISION, G2, and Liquid should form the backbone of most cards. One flexible slot can be used on Astralis or B8 depending on risk tolerance.

Stage 1 is where monthly rankings are built. You do not need to win the week. You need to survive it better than everyone else.

Prediction outlook for Stage 1

Aurora and PARIVISION are the strongest bets to qualify cleanly. G2 and Liquid should follow. The final slots are likely contested between Astralis, HEROIC, and B8, with BC.Game capable of disrupting expectations without necessarily advancing.

If you want to separate from the pack, backing PARIVISION early and investing in s1mple's individual output is the clearest edge.

Choose your battles wisely. Safe picks keep you alive. Smart risks move you up.

TL;DR

• Stage 1 is a 16 team double elimination with limited padding potential
• Aurora, PARIVISION, G2, and Liquid are the safest advancement picks
• s1mple at $195k is elite value even on an underdog team
• PARIVISION players are underpriced relative to current form
• Volume and consistency matter more than clean sweeps